books/gu-zhenren/exp15/q3a_reanalysis.json

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{
"floor_proxy_a0_vs_a0": {
"mean_a0_spread": 0.1145,
"max_a0_spread": 0.406,
"n_traps": 20
},
"modes": {
"q3a-src": {
"primary_paired_mean": -0.0047,
"primary_paired_CI90": [
-0.1167,
0.1073
],
"primary_n": 20,
"primary_paired_p": 0.943,
"primary_MDE90": 0.1813,
"primary_marginal_armacc": -0.0048,
"tana_only_paired_mean": 0.042,
"tana_only_CI90": [
-0.0311,
0.1151
],
"tana_n": 18,
"loo_mean_diff": {
"without_grok-4.3": 0.0183,
"without_mistral-large-latest": -0.0125
},
"primary_catastrophes_arm_vs_a0": [
66,
73
]
},
"q3a-draft": {
"primary_paired_mean": -0.0085,
"primary_paired_CI90": [
-0.1439,
0.127
],
"primary_n": 20,
"primary_paired_p": 0.915,
"primary_MDE90": 0.2194,
"primary_marginal_armacc": -0.0084,
"tana_only_paired_mean": 0.0184,
"tana_only_CI90": [
-0.1002,
0.137
],
"tana_n": 18,
"loo_mean_diff": {
"without_grok-4.3": 0.0559,
"without_mistral-large-latest": -0.0159
},
"primary_catastrophes_arm_vs_a0": [
51,
58
]
},
"q3a-final": {
"primary_paired_mean": -0.0548,
"primary_paired_CI90": [
-0.1946,
0.0849
],
"primary_n": 20,
"primary_paired_p": 0.505,
"primary_MDE90": 0.2262,
"primary_marginal_armacc": -0.0549,
"tana_only_paired_mean": -0.0286,
"tana_only_CI90": [
-0.149,
0.0919
],
"tana_n": 18,
"loo_mean_diff": {
"without_grok-4.3": -0.0609,
"without_mistral-large-latest": -0.0375
},
"primary_catastrophes_arm_vs_a0": [
50,
49
]
}
},
"pooled_fix_rate": {
"A0_failed_traps": [
"T-ana-17",
"T-ana-2",
"T-ana-32",
"T-ana-36",
"T-ana-42",
"T-ell-40"
],
"n_failed": 6,
"by_mode": {
"q3a-src": "2/6 (33%)",
"q3a-draft": "2/6 (33%)",
"q3a-final": "2/6 (33%)"
}
},
"T-ell-43_disclosure": {
"q3a-src": {
"a0_acc": 1.0,
"arm_acc": 0.0,
"cat_arm": 11,
"cat_a0": 0
},
"q3a-draft": {
"a0_acc": 1.0,
"arm_acc": 0.125,
"cat_arm": 8,
"cat_a0": 0
},
"q3a-final": {
"a0_acc": 1.0,
"arm_acc": 0.042,
"cat_arm": 9,
"cat_a0": 0
}
}
}